Lessons:
- When there is catalyst / earning, stock can move very aggressive or different direction from market.
- When there is no catalyst, stock generally moving inline with market, but with different relative strength. Daily and intraday chart becomes very important
Template:
Oct 25, 2021: Week 4 Trades
OCT 29, 2021 (Fri)
Preparation:
(1) Market Direction
(2) Catalyst
(3) Premarket Strength
(4) Daily & Intraday Technical
(5) Key Prices
(6) Market open relative strength
Today prepare at 9.00pm. SPY and QQQ premarket gapped down.
Trade 1: MA
Oct 25, 2021: Week 4 Trades
OCT 28, 2021
Preparation:
(1) Market Direction (2) Catalyst (3) Premarket Strength (4) Daily & Intraday Technical (5) Key Prices
(6) Market open relative strength
Today prepare at 8.45pm. SPY and QQQ looks good.
Trade 1: MA
OCT 29, 2021 (FRI)
Preparation:
(1) Market Direction
(2) Catalyst
(3) Premarket Strength
(4) Daily & Intraday Technical
(5) Key Prices
(6) Market open relative strength
(1) Market Direction
Today prepare at 9.00pm. SPY and QQQ premarket gapped down.
In U.S. Corporate news:
- Apple (AAPL 147.18, -5.39): -3.5% after missing revenue estimates due to supply chain and chip supply issues, which the company expects to persist in the fourth quarter.
- Amazon.com (AMZN 3292.00, -154.57): -4.5% after missing top and bottom-line estimates and guiding Q4 revenue and operating income below consensus, citing higher costs.
- Starbucks (SBUX 107.44, -5.76): -5.1% after missing revenue estimates. The company committed to $20 billion of share repurchases and dividends over the next three years.
- Chevron (CVX 115.50, +2.38): +2.1% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM 64.95, +0.64): +1.0% after beating top and bottom-line estimates, increasing its dividend by one cent, and announcing a share repurchase program of up to $10 billion over 12 - 24 months.
Apple (AAPL) – Apple matched estimates with quarterly earnings of $1.24 per share, but revenue fell below analyst forecasts for the first time since 2016. Supply chain issues impacted the production of iPhones and other Apple products, and the stock fell 3.6% in the premarket.
Amazon.com (AMZN) – Amazon earned $6.12 per share for the third quarter, well below the $8.92 consensus estimate, with revenue also falling below forecasts. Like Apple, Amazon cited supply chain issues and also pointed to labor shortages, and Amazon shares slid 4.5% in premarket trading.
Starbucks (SBUX) – Starbucks beat estimates by a penny with an adjusted quarterly profit of $1.00 per share, but the coffee chain’s revenue and global comparable-store sales fell short of Wall Street forecasts. Starbucks saw a particularly negative impact on its results from a resurgence of Covid-19 in the key China market. Starbucks slumped 5.2% in premarket action.
Western Digital (WDC) – The disk drive maker tumbled 11.2% in premarket trading after the company provided weaker-than-expected current-quarter financial guidance. Western Digital, like other tech companies, is being hit by supply chain issues, although it did beat estimates by 4 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of $2.49 per share.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/29/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-friday-oct-29.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/29/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-chevron-exxon-mobil-newell-brands-and-more.html
Trade 1: MSFT
Observe market open, wait for P3 if broke above premarket high
Plan Exit:
Follow SL @ 1/4 ATR and PT @ 330 next key price
Preparation:
- Still not enough preparation. Doing it a bit late at 9pm.
- As there is high uncertainty, every stock looks possible to go up and down, hard to make choice before market open. Decided to watch market open to finalize which stock to look into.
- This time choose 1 strength stock (LCID) and others regular stock. Choose MSFT because premarket and upon market open is stronger. There is also news about MSFT overtake AAPL on market cap. It has higher potential than AAPL
Entry & Exit:
- When market opens, see MSFT with strength decided to trigger the LMT order wait for P3, also at 325 key price level.
- There is a very long candle came down triggered the entry and also nearly hit SL.
- However after pull back it became weak and continue came down slowly and eventually I manually exited at market breaking down premarket high.
After Thought & Review:
- This few days intraday become harder to trade as the direction switch side very fast and drastically easily being kicked out.
Good:
- Choose regular stock to look into it and planning at a more conservative entry point.
Improve:
- When first candle market open, the price went up so fast, my reaction and emotion is still being stirred. Could have calm mind, and it influences my decision and action. Eager to get in.
- Plan early so can go through the rational thought process and preempt the possible scenario to be better prepared mentally
- Better entry would be 325 to 327.5/330
Trade 2: LCID
Enter when break P2 at key price 40.
Plan Exit:
SL set as higher than 1/2 ATR as there is catalyst following the news that it will start delivering cars tomorrow.
Preparation:
- Choose this as buddy mentioned about it and also there is catalyst as it starts delivering car this weekend.
- Did not do complete analysis on the catalyst before entering.
Entry & Exit:
- Planned for low and high entry. As it was bullish upon market open, decided to enter for P2 @ 40.
- The reverse is very quick and hit SL.
After Thought & Review:
- This is still not a good momentum stock. Entry is a bit aggressive seeing the previous day's trading price.
- Observed the price still form support at 3mEMA200.
Good:
- Good try and observe emotion and strategy work or not.
Improve:
- Learn to be calm and see lesser stock but more details into it.
- There are better trade entry if look closely. E.g. FB @ 320+ to 325, NVDA @ 251 to 255, AMD @121 to 122.5
Trade Better Choice A: FB
Trade Better Choice B: NVDA
Trade Better Choice C: AMD
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